Republicans Give Up on Trying to Beat Perlmutter

In a year in which Republicans are having trouble fielding exciting candidates for U.S. Senate or Governor, it should come as little surprise that they aren't going to put up a strong candidate against incumbent Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter in CD-7. As Lynn Bartels noted in "The Spot," Republican Don "Can I Buy a Vowel" Ytterberg will kick off his campaign for CD-7 on Wednesday.

Don Ytterberg. Yes, that’s how you spell it.

Ytterberg, the CEO of a metal finishing company in Arvada, lost a bid for State Senate in 2008 to Democrat Dan Gibbs of Summit County. Most recently, Ytterberg served as the Chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party, a position he resigned late last year. Ytterberg isn't a terrible candidate, but he's definitely more of a ballot filler than a true challenger; he's not dynamic or interesting enough to pose a real threat to Perlmutter, which has a lot to do with Perlmutter himself.

Since first winning election to CD-7 in 2006, Perlmutter has cruised to re-election every two years no matter the opponent. In the Tea Party wave year of 2010, Perlmutter crushed Republican Ryan Frazier 53-42. Even after redistricting made CD-7 more competitive in 2012, and with a wealthy, well-known opponent in Joe Coors, Perlmutter still won by a 53-41 margin.

Given Perlmutter's obvious hold on the district, we've been wondering when Republicans would finally give up trying to make a serious run at the Jeffco native — and it appears 2014 is that year.

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Republicans Agree with Udall on NSA Spying

Sen. Mark Udall

The Republican National Committee today passed a resolution condemning surveillance programs of the National Security Agency, a move that will certainly make for a nice TV advertisement for the re-election efforts of Democratic Sen. Mark Udall. As a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Udall has been in front of the efforts to pull back on the NSA's domestic spying programs, and the RNC's agreement on the issue will help Udall supporters cast him as a bipartisan leader.

It doesn't hurt that the RNC's language in their resolution is remarkably similar to Udall's messaging. From The Hill:

The committee criticized the government’s bulk collection of records about all phone calls, which emerged as one of the most controversial programs revealed in leaks by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden. That NSA effort “is in itself contrary to the right of privacy protected by the Fourth Amendment of the United States Constitution,” the RNC said in the resolution.

Now here's Udall speaking about the issue with NPR a few weeks ago:

"We shouldn't codify a program that violates Americans' privacy, raises questions about the Fourth Amendment and is, in the end, not proven to be effective. … It violates Americans' privacy and may well be unconstitutional."

It looks like we know where the eventual GOP Senate nominee will be on the NSA spying issue…just maybe with a little different language.

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Tancredo says Republicans “will not beat Hickenlooper” on gun issues

(Promoted by Colorado Pols)

On KNUS radio this morning, host Dan Caplis said it was "legitimate" for Sen. Greg Brophy to spotlight Tom Tancredo's post-Columbine vote for a House resolution limiting, among other things, the size of magazines to 10 rounds or fewer, the same limitation put on magazines by one of Colorado's new gun-safety laws.

In response, Tancredo, who's battling Brophy for the chance to take on Gov. John Hickenlooper in November, downplayed the importance of the gun-safety issues in the upcoming general election, saying, "We are not going to win an election on this."

Here's part of Tanc's response, as heard on KNUS:

Tancredo: "I'll tell you that if, indeed, anybody believes that the Republican nominee, whoever that might be, can win the general election on this [gun] issue, or a couple of others that are fairly focused, they're wrong. We will not beat Hickenlooper, I don't care who it is, we will not beat Hickenlooper on this issue… We are not going to win an election on this. …

The NRA has always supported me. These things are essentially frivolous attacks that do not help in the long run. And as I say, I do not agree with you that this is something that the other side will use. Do you really believe that Hickenlooper would be attacking me for being soft on guns?"

Caplis: I think it would come up. And I think you'd handle it well…. Here's how I would definitely see it coming up in the campaign. You're running against Hickenlooper. You're the nominee. You're bashing him…he tried to restrict Coloradans' gun rights. And then Hickenlooper turns around with their 527s… 'Wait a second. Tom agrees with Hickelooper on this.'

Listen to Tancredo on Caplis saying GOP won't beat Hick on Guns

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Brophy Continues to Fire Away at Fellow Republicans

Sen. Greg Brophy, ready to cripple fellow Republicans running for Governor.

State Sen. Greg Brophy probably never had much of a chance at becoming Colorado's next Governor, particularly after a brutally bad Q3 fundraising quarter, but that hasn't stopped him from taking every opportunity to kneecap other GOP candidates. Yesterday he went after Tom Tancredo for a gun safety vote that occurred in Congress shortly after the Columbine shooting. This won't help Brophy make it much closer to the top of the field, but it could cause some serious damage to Tancredo's campaign.

From FOX 31:

Brophy attacked Tancredo Monday over a 1999 vote by the former congressman who supported legislation to restrict the sale, transfer, importation and possession of assault rifles and magazines with higher than a 10-round capacity, a measure that is, at least generally, comparable to the ban approved by Colorado Democrats last year that outlaws magazines of more than 15 rounds.

“To a lot of people, this is the seminal issue,” Brophy told FOX31 Denver. “Tancredo’s record on gun control is actually worse than John Hickenlooper’s.”

Brophy is highlighting Tancredo’s support for House Resolution 2122 back on June 18, 1999, just two months after the horrific shooting at Columbine High School in Littleton, in Tancredo’s congressional district and just blocks from the lawmaker’s home.

In a New York Times article published three days after the vote, Tancredo explained why he supported the legislation, making him the only member of Congress from Colorado to do so (the legislation died, with Republicans arguing that the restrictions went too far and Democrats that they didn’t go far enough).

In response to a question from reporter James Brooke, who asked “what made the difference?”, Tancredo replied: ”Twelve dead children, one dead adult, 24 injured kids and a community that has had its heart broken — that made the difference.”

Ironically, this is the kind of story that would probably help Tancredo in a General Election if he hadn't already decided to be "Captain 2nd Amendment" in the Republican Primary. This also highlights the problem of gun safety for Republicans in a Primary — any perceived weakness on 2nd Amendment issues will be a problem for someone trying to win the GOP nomination.

As for Brophy, he's spent so much time lately trying to tear down Tancredo and Scott Gessler that it's starting to look like he's really running in order to block for someone else — Mike Kopp, perhaps?

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BREAKING: Democrats To Probably Kill Republican Bills, Republicans Very Unhappy About It

From left: Sens. Owen Hill, Ted Harvey, Vicki Marble, Greg Brophy, Kevin Lundberg, George Rivera, and Kent Lambert. Photo by Colorado Senate GOP

Oh my stars!

In a remarkable press conference at noon today in the Colorado Capitol press room, Republican Senators complained bitterly that many of their bills are being sent to the Senate State Affairs Committee, known as the "kill committee" for its longstanding role as the place majority leadership in both parties sends unwanted bills to die.

.@ColoSenGOP holds noon presser to say Dems are sending their bills to "kill" committee.Can you say majority? #coleg #copolitics

— Lynn Bartels (@lynn_bartels) January 15, 2014

What's remarkable about this press conference, especially coming on the heels of Senate Minority Leader Bill Cadman's bizarre freak-out yesterday over what turned out to be absolutely nothing, is that Republicans are now complaining about one of the most routine practices in our legislature. Every majority in both the House and Senate regardless of party sends unfavored bills to the State Affairs committee. Sometimes a legislator does a really good job advocating, and they pass despite this–as they sometimes do in other committees. We've seen no evidence that any higher proportion of bills are being sent to "kill committee" this year than other years.

Either way, it does appear that this press conference to complain about a routine development is connected to Cadman's embarrassing tantrum yesterday. They are both petty, belligerent reactions, wholly out of proportion to actual events. Based on the response by even our fair-to-a-fault local political journalists, they are wildly overplaying their hand. Even relatively green reporters know better. If there is a strategy among Republicans to artificially ramp tensions to a fever pitch early in this year's session, they need to rethink it.

Because that only works if it's believable, folks.

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2013′s Top Ten #9: How Colorado Republicans Became “Persona Non Grata” in New York City

Reps. Cory Gardner, Mike Coffman, Scott Tipton, and Doug Lamborn.

Last September, the Front Range urban region of Colorado was hit by the worst flooding in a generation. A freak storm parked over the mountains immediately west of Denver and Boulder, dropping over a year's worth of precipitation in a matter of days. Thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed, whole towns were cut off from assistance, and residents were evacuated by helicopter in a massive rescue effort by the Colorado National Guard.

The damage done by the late September floods along the Front Range dwarfed the resources available to the state of Colorado to respond, and very early on in the disaster it became obvious that a large infusion of federal disaster relief would be necessary to recover. Every member of Colorado's congressional delegation, Republican and Democrat, joined together in requesting emergency disaster relief funding.

Unfortunately, past votes by Republican members of Colorado's congressional delegation came back to haunt the entire state. Early this year, Colorado Republican Reps. Cory Gardner, Scott Tipton, Mike Coffman, and Doug Lamborn all voted against relief legislation for victims of a much greater disaster in terms of property damage and loss of life. Hurricane Sandy, which hit the East Coast just before the 2012 presidential elections, killed nearly 300 people in seven nations and did an estimated $65 billion in damage in the United States. Some of the worst-affected areas were coastal New Jersey and New York City.

After the request for federal disaster relief by Colorado became public, elected officials in New Jersey and New York exploded in public criticism of the "hypocrisy" demonstrated by Colorado Republicans. New Jersey GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo denounced Colorado's congressional Republicans as the "Hypocrisy Caucus." Rep. Joseph Crowley of New York told the Daily News, "I hope New Yorkers make clear these members are persona non grata in our town." In a shocking twist, it was revealed that the disaster relief funding in question would actually come from funds approved as part of the Hurricane Sandy legislation Colorado Republicans had voted against. Republican Gov. Chris Christie's response was carried by the Washington Post:

"They're hypocrites. That's what they are," Christie said of the Colorado Republicans during a telephone town hall meeting Thursday night, in comments first reported by the Newark Star-Ledger. But, he added: "We can't be vindictive. Because we have to be concerned about the actual people that are being hurt."

In the end, principally through the work of Democratic Colorado Senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet, Colorado received the federal disaster relief money needed, and Gov. John Hickenlooper has proudly overseen a recovery that is moving along ahead of schedule. Rep. Peter King, Republican of Long Island, said of his colleagues from Colorado, "They should just thank God, we didn't use the same tactics against them that they used against us." Even so, New Jersey Sen. Jeff Chiesa placed put a hold on Colorado's aid request until transportation officials assured him that they could get the money from a funding source other than the Hurricane Sandy legislation that Colorado Republicans had opposed.

In contrast to the headlines this incident made in New York and New Jersey, local Colorado press downplayed the story, and focused on the petulant response Rep. Cory Gardner that he had voted against the Hurricane Sandy aid bill because it didn't contain enough for Colorado flood relief. Never mind that other Colorado Republicans like Rep. Doug Lamborn simply thought the bill was loaded with "pork," or that Colorado Democrats nonetheless supported the bill. Perhaps there was a collective judgment in the local media that, with the state gripped by a major disaster, this unpleasant political sidebar just wasn't what Coloradans wanted to read about.

But be assured, New York and New Jersey aren't going to forget.

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Several Republicans Could be Top Recall Targets

Supporters of a recall of Democratic Sen. Evie Hudak have just a few more days (Dec. 1) to finish gathering petition signatures in hopes of getting a recall measure placed in the ballot in Arvada. But if you thought that might be the end of the recall season…think again.

Can Sen. Bill Cadman (R) survive until 2016?

As we noted earlier, Republican Sen. Vicki Marble is apparently hearing rumors about a potential recall attempt in her district. Sen. Marble's district is among those with the largest number of signatures required to trigger a recall (19,550), which is based on the total number of votes cast in the last state senate race. For comparison's sake, Sen. Hudak's district also has a high signature threshold, with 18,962 signatures required.

Democrats have decried the recall process as a subversion of Democracy and an abuse of the intent of the process. Recalls are supposed to be about clear malfeasance — they were never meant to be implemented by an interest group that doesn't like one or two specific votes. It's not just a clever line to say that we already have a recall process every two years.

Yet as much as Democrats may be disgusted by the recall efforts, there is a growing sentiment that they can no longer afford to take the high ground if control of the Senate is in danger of being flipped. Recalls are a difficult process — there's a reason that the Sept. 10 recalls were the first in state history — but the campaigns against Democratic Senator John Morse and Angela Giron were made somewhat easier by lower signature requirements: just 7,178 in Morse's SD-11, and 11,285 in Giron's SD-3.

There are several Republican Senators, however, who are more than vulnerable to a potential recall. Some could be particularly interesting, such as the case of Sen. Owen Hill; it would be curious to see a recall effort take place against Hill while he tries to simultaneously win the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate. 

Here at Colorado Pols, we'd rather see the whole recall nonsense come to an end altogether; as we said earlier, this is not how a recall is supposed to be implemented. But if Rocky Mountain Gun Owners, the Tea Party, and other angry right-wingers insist on promoting recalls, Democrats probably can't sit on the sidelines any longer.

Take a look after the jump to see the signature requirements to trigger a recall in Senate districts held by Republicans:

RECALL TRIGGERS FOR CURRENT REPUBLICAN STATE SENATORS

Republicans were successful in recalling Morse and Giron, but there's a good chance that they will lose at least one of those seats (SD-3) back to the Democrats in the 2014 election, limiting the amount of time they could take advantage of the party switch. Conversely, there are several at-risk Republican senators who aren't up for re-election until 2016, and if Democrats were successful in those recall attempts then they would hold control of the seat for two years.

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Colorado Republicans Hammered By New Yorkers Over Flood Aid

Reps. Cory Gardner, Mike Coffman, Scott Tipton, and Doug Lamborn.

A story in today's New York Daily News is calculated to enrage their local readers, still recovering from last year's devastating Hurricane Sandy. It pertains to the lifting last week of a $100 million (mistakenly reported as $100 billion in this story) cap on emergency federal highway relief for Colorado after the recent devastating floods here. That stands out in ugly contrast to the vote by Colorado Republicans following Hurricane Sandy against relief legislation, which Rep. Cory Gardner claimed was in retaliation for Colorado being "treated differently" than other states. The original Sandy aid legislation, in full fairness, also contained money for flooding mitigation in Colorado, which was stripped from the bill by fellow Republicans. That's the excuse Gardner makes today.

But as the Daily News' Dan Friedman reports, nobody in New York wants to hear it.

Four Colorado Republicans — Reps. Cory Gardner, Mike Coffman, Doug Lamborn and Scott Tipton — opposed the Sandy aid for the Northeast but crowed after they secured federal disaster funding for their constituents.

New York lawmakers who had to wage a bitter fight for the Sandy money found the flip-flop by their Colorado counterparts too tough to take.

“Natural disasters don’t discriminate, but apparently Republican members from Colorado do,” the normally affable Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-Queens) told the Daily News.

“When Hurricane Sandy struck New York, Reps. Gardner, Coffman, Lamborn and Tipton opposed providing federal assistance to help us rebuild. But their opposition to federal emergency aid dissolved when their state was struck by historic floods.”

He added, “It’s the height of hypocrisy for them to have so quickly and conveniently changed their position. I only wish the best for the people of Colorado as they repair their lives after such devastation, but I hope New Yorkers make clear these members are persona non grata in our town.” [Pols emphasis]

To help fellow New Yorkers recognize these four newly "persona non grata" Colorado members of Congress, the story includes huge blow-up photos of all four Colorado Republicans who voted against the Sandy relief package: Reps. Gardner, Mike Coffman, Scott Tipton, and Doug Lamborn. And if you think it's just New York Democrats who are upset about the perceived hypocrisy, think again:

Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.), who called out fellow Republicans when they opposed the Sandy aid, said the Colorado lawmakers showed “real hypocrisy” in voting for the flood relief this week.

“You never know when and where these disasters are gonna hit,” King said. “They should just thank God, we didn’t use the same tactics against them that they used against us.”

King said one of the Colorado Republicans, who he declined to name, asked him before the vote if he was still angry over the Sandy vote.

“I said I was,” King said.

A little over a week ago, we wrote our open letter to the rest of America anticipating this exact criticism–so it's safe to say we're not surprised to see this. As we said then, the vote by local Republicans against Hurricane Sandy relief was roundly criticized, and it should not be considered representative of the population of this state–especially those now in need of relief themselves. This embarrassment aside, we do care about our neighbors.

As for these four "persona non grata" Republicans from Colorado? As they say back east, "screw 'em."

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As Federal Shutdown Nears, Fingers Pointing at Republicans

UPDATE: New ABC/Washington Post poll shows similarly bad polling numbers for Republicans on the eve of a shutdown:

Republicans’ weaker standing stems from lower marks from political independents but also fellow Republicans.

Only about a third of independents approve of Obama’s work on the budget (34 percent), but an even smaller 21 percent support congressional Republicans (congressional Democrats fall in the middle at 27 percent).

—–
No real surprise here, as CNN reports:

The Democratic-led Senate on Monday afternoon rejected a proposal by the Republican-led House to delay Obamacare for a year and repeal a tax on medical devices, increasing the chances no deal to avert a shutdown would be reached.

House Speaker John Boehner now must decide how to respond with the Senate again rejecting attempts to halt Obamacare. He could put a "clean" spending provision to a vote…

As we've mentioned previously in this space, polling has been clear for weeks that Americans will blame Republicans in the event of a government shutdown:

A new CNN/ORC poll shows that Americans are not happy about the prospect of a shutdown, which is happening because Congress has been unable to pass a budget for the new fiscal year that begins Tuesday.

According to the poll, 68% of Americans think shutting down the government for even a few days is a bad idea, while 27% think it's a good idea.

And it appears most Americans would blame congressional Republicans for a shutdown: Sixty-nine percent said they agreed with the statement that the party's elected officials were acting like "spoiled children." [Pols emphasis] Democrats, however, weren't far behind: Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they too were acting like spoiled kids.

There is still time for House Republicans to do something besides just try to please their Tea Party masters. It will be interesting to see if House Speaker John Boehner can appeal to reason before a shutdown is implemented, or if he has just given up and, in effect, ceded leadership to Sen. Ted Cruz.

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Republicans vs. Republicans, Round (Infinity)

As CNN reports, last Friday's vote by House Republicans to defund Obamacare as part of the budget battle turned out (surprise!) to accomplish absolutely nothing (again):

In a congressional version of hot potato, the Senate on Friday passed a short-term spending plan that would prevent a looming government shutdown and sent it to the House for a weekend showdown between Republican tea party conservatives and their more moderate party leaders.

The 54-44 vote on strict party lines came after Senate Democrats pushed through an amendment to restore funding for Obamacare that House Republicans had eliminated in their version of the spending measure, which would prevent the start of a government shutdown on Tuesday.

Now House Speaker John Boehner must decide whether to urge his divided Republican caucus to vote with Democrats to pass the Senate plan, or yield again to a hardline conservative wing that demands making continued government funding contingent on undermining Obamacare.

Pundits from both sides of the political aisle have been saying for weeks that Republicans will be blamed in the event of a federal government shutdown. Everybody knows it — even House Speaker John Boehner knows it — which is why the Senate spent little time pondering the House version of a spending bill and just sent back something realistic instead.

Oh, and remember Sen. Ted "Green Eggs and Ham" Cruz and his lame filibuster attempt?

The Senate began its votes Friday by easily overcoming a filibuster led by GOP Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas against the spending plan.

Congressional Republicans really have no good options here. Either they pass the Senate plan and step out of a debate they'll never win with the public, or they continue to appease the Tea Party and hard-right conservatives, which causes significant damage to Republicans who aren't even in Congress. Have fun with that, Mr. Speaker.

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Gardner Works Fellow Republicans For Flood Relief Dollars

Rep. Cory Gardner (R).

7NEWS' Marshall Zelinger reports:

Hundreds of millions in emergency federal highway money will be coming to Colorado.

Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Yuma, told 7NEWS that the Colorado Congressional delegation was successful in getting the House Appropriations chairman to lift the $100 million Federal Highway Administration emergency relief funding cap.

"I'm excited that he's given us that promise to do that, to provide the emergency dollars that we need and get that statutory cap lifted as has been done in the past for other disasters," said Gardner…

As a number of liberal outlets including the nationally prominent ThinkProgress noted last week, Rep. Cory Gardner, along with the other three Republicans in Colorado's congressional delegation, voted against a bill funding reconstruction of areas affected by 2012's Hurricane Sandy. In this story, Gardner offers his explanation:

Gardner had already voted in favor of $17 billion in emergency aid for Superstorm Sandy. Before that bill was finalized, $33 billion in additional funds for pet projects were added to the Sandy bill. When Colorado's request was denied, Gardner voted against the emergency aid bill.

"I supported the Sandy package initially, and of course, when the secondary supplemental came through, I opposed it because they refused to put money for Colorado in it," said Gardner. "I was so frustrated this spring, when we had a chance to provide Coloradans disaster aid, just like we were to other parts of the country that had suffered, and of course, Colorado was treated differently."

The stripping of funds for Colorado flood mitigation–by Gardner's fellow House Republicans, don't forget–was a bipartisan sore point for our local representatives, but it didn't stop the Democrats in the Colorado delegation from voting for the final Sandy aid bill. Other Republicans like Rep. Doug Lamborn voted against the Sandy relief bill on ideological grounds that had little to do with provisions for local funding. With that said, the reality of Republican control of the House today means that Rep. Gardner, arguably the most influential Republican member of the Colorado delegation, is going to play a key role in obtaining federal aid for Colorado to recover from this disaster. The fact is, Colorado is likely going to need a comprehensive relief bill: not as many billions as was required for Hurricane Sandy, but Gardner has likely only delivered the first piece of what will ultimately be needed.

Bottom line: there is a justifiable and plain question of hypocrisy here, especially in the greater context of the fiscal debate in Washington. It is plainly hypocritical to vote against disaster relief for others, then expect it when you need it for your own constituents. In the larger debate over the role of government at all levels throughout America today, there are many such hypocrisies.

But for today, with Colorado citizens desperately in need, Gardner will be allowed to defer those hard questions.

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Republicans Veer Off Message: No Help Needed

The Colorado Independent's Tessa Cheek reports today on a new mailer hitting Senate District 11 mailboxes this weekend, attacking Colorado Senate President John Morse's de facto GOP recall opponent Bernie Herpin. A similar mailer is reportedly on the way to residents of Senate District 3, where Democratic Sen. Angela Giron faces a recall challenge led by Republican George Rivera:

The Herpin mailer refers to his support as city council member of the “personhood” movement, which seeks to outlaw abortion by granting full legal rights to fertilized human eggs, or “life from the moment of conception,” as supporters put it. Analysts have said personhood would amount to sweeping changes in the law, where countless statutes would have to be reworked and legal interpretations extended broadly and perhaps to absurd ends, where not only birth control would be outlawed but also where activities like drinking, smoking and raw-cheese eating, for example, could turn pregnant women into suspects or criminals.

Groups have tried and failed three times in recent years to pass a constitutional amendment to make personhood the law in Colorado. Voters in conservative Mississippi also solidly rejected a personhood proposal in 2011…

Republican George Rivera, a longtime Pueblo police officer who retired as a deputy chief, brushed off the mailers Friday on Twitter, calling them “desperate” and a “shell game” being played by Giron.

“I make no apologies for my belief in the sanctity of life,” he wrote.

But Rivera takes a hardline stance on the abortion debate, even for a conservative, and reproductive rights are sure to be one of the issues that will concern voters in Pueblo.

The recall attempts now underway against Sens. Morse and Giron began as a response to the passage of landmark gun safety bills in the Colorado legislature this year. Gun rights groups, grassroots and not so much, did the early organizing. But over time, the recalls have evolved into a much more generalized conflict between conservative and liberal political establishments in Colorado. This is particularly evident from the prominent role played by a group "advised" by Bob Beauprez and Mark Hillman in the Morse recall, not to mention Jeff Crank's Americans for Prosperity organization supplying professional staff to those "grassroots groups"–see Kerns, Jennifer–and lavish paid media support. After years of losing elections, these recalls have come to symbolize Colorado Republican hopes to springboard back into majority power.

It's important to remember that recall organizers themselves have freely expanded the scope of allegations against the targeted Senators to include the whole smorgasbord of Republican pet issues, from hating on renewable energy to civil unions–when it suited them. So nobody can accuse recall opponents of anything inappropriate by using a broader range of issues against the successor candidates now.

Bottom line: the more the recall debate veers away from the single issue of gun rights, the less likely the recalls are to succeed. Voters in both swing SD-11 and heavily Democratic SD-3 trend ambivalent at best, to strongly opposed to Herpin and Rivera's positions on just about every issue. Single-issue backlash from gun rights supporters aside, SD-3 is a Democratic stronghold, and SD-11 after reapportionment is more defensible by Democrats than the 2010 election's close result suggests. The fact is, any transpartisan appeal that recall supporters claim to have with opposition to the gun bills has a point of diminishing return–and it's these other issues, issues Democrats know very well how to use against Republicans politically, that will tip swing voters in these districts toward a "no."

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