How National Party ID Trends Compare in Colorado

Last week Gallup announced that a record 42% of Americans now self-identify as "Independents" when asked about their political affiliation. That 42% is the highest mark for Independents in the 25 years that Gallup has been tracking these things.

The growth in "Independents" apparently came at the detriment to Republicans; only 25% of Americans identify with the GOP, the lowest mark in 25 years. Democratic Party identification remains unchanged in the past 4 years at 31%. But since we all know that there are very few people who are truly Independents, Gallup clarifies:

Democrats maintain their six-point edge in party identification when independents' "partisan leanings" are taken into account. In addition to the 31% of Americans who identify as Democrats, another 16% initially say they are independents but when probed say they lean to the Democratic Party. An equivalent percentage, 16%, say they are independent but lean to the Republican Party, on top of the 25% of Americans identifying as Republicans. All told, then, 47% of Americans identify as Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party, and 41% identify as Republicans or lean to the Republican Party. [Pols emphasis]

So how does this compare to Colorado? It is impossible to make direct comparisons, of course, without access to Gallup's historical survey data. But we can make our own observations using voter registration data compiled by the Colorado Secretary of State's office…

In the past, we would look at voter registration comparisons and focus primarily on "active" voters as a gauge of where Colorado voters stand. But the definition of the terms "active" and "inactive" voter have become fairly muddled since Republican Scott Gessler assumed the office of Secretary of State in January 2011; indeed, Gessler seems happy only when fewer people are voting in general. So in order to find some sort of balance for comparison, we just decided to add up active and inactive voters from Jan. 2010 and Nov. 2013 (the most current data available) to see how things shake out. Take a gander:

As you can see, the voter registration growth in Colorado has definitely been on the "Unaffiliated" side, with both Democrats and Republicans declining in terms of total percentage of the electorate. It's too early to guess which direction Colorado Unaffiliated voters will be leaning in 2014, but if past history is any indication (and it usually is), Democrats will likely still see some kind of advantage among the total voting populace. The easiest comparison here is to look at the results for President in 2012, when Barack Obama carried Colorado 51-46 over Republican Mitt Romney. Since Colorado voter registration numbers were about equal among Democrats and Republicans in November 2012, Obama almost certainly picked up a good chunk of the so-called Unaffiliated vote in Colorado.

If we give Democrats that 5% from the Obama-Romney race, then you could reasonably argue that Party self-ID in Colorado is 36% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 31% Unaffiliated. This is similar to the 6% advantage for Democrats identified in the Gallup national poll.

Yes, we realize all of this is completely unscientific, but without directly-comparable data we think this could provide a reasonable glimpse at how Colorado voters self-identify. Because both the Democratic and Republican Parties are lagging far behind in voter registration numbers compared to Unaffiliated designations, the most important factor here — and in November 2014 — will be related to where those "Unaffiliated" voters actually throw their support.

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New Coffman® Scrubs “Tea Party” References From Wikipedia

Rep. Mike Coffman (R).

How are people are still making this amateur mistake? Buzzfeed:

Last year BuzzFeed reported on how congressional staffers had been editing members’ Wikipedia pages. House offices all share the same IP address. This makes it quite easy to find when people who work in Congress airbrush Wikipedia pages. BuzzFeed found 13 new examples since the first post…

And who do you suppose they found idiotically making edits to their congressional Wikipedia pages from that effortlessly traceable (and public) congressional IP address?

A section from the article “List of politicians affiliated with the Tea Party movement” was removed that said Republican Rep. Mike Coffman was associated with the tea party.

That's right! Colorado's own Rep. Mike Coffman, one of the most endangered GOP members of Congress heading into 2014, has been caught editing his Wikipedia page to remove references to his formerly proud membership in the Tea Party Caucus. The latest red-handed example, though there are likely others, took place as recently as September 20th of this year:

It's pretty stunning to see this error still being made by congressional staff. Buzzfeed's expose last year of congressional Wikipedia edits was bad enough. Coffman, as 9NEWS' Kyle Clark reminds us today, was the #1 offender of last year's story, for removing all reference to his infamous 2012 remarks about President Barack Obama's citizenship. When supporters of Sarah Palin ham-fistedly edited Paul Revere's entry to conform to Palin's faulty recounting of history, eyes rolled from coast to coast. At the very least, couldn't Coffman's staff wait until they are outside the Capitol to make these traceable edits? Use their phones? Something?

Especially since in "New Coffman's" case, one can hardly imagine a more embarrassing screwup?

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Media omission: GOP recall spokeswoman says she fought Republican Party more than Morse

(Schadenfreude – Promoted by Colorado Pols)

In an interesting Spot Blog Post Sunday by The Denver Post's Kurtis Lee, Republican State Chairman Ryan Call defends himself against recent accusations from Republican activists that he did not support the recall campaigns of Democratic State Senators Angela Giron and John Morse. Call told The Post that the State GOP, in fact, supported Republican recall candidates with cash, legal backing, get-out-the-vote activities, and other ways. The Post also reported:

"In an e-mail exchange, Call offered to attend a news conference in support of the recalls, but he was turned down by a spokeswoman for the recall organizers."

The spokeswoman for the recall organizers was Jennifer Kerns, and she was apparently not given the chance respond to Call's allegation. Either that or she deferred to Victor Head, the Pueblo activist, who was quoted in the article, slamming Call. But, in any case, on KLZ radio Friday afternoon, Kerns said:

Kerns: "This is my first time speaking out as the spokesperson for the recalls, and I'm doing it right here first on Grassroots Radio to say that the [Republican] Party blocked us every step of the way, whether it was phone calls into Pueblo from Ryan Call to suggest that they shut down those recalls, and they not aid and assist the guys from Pueblo Freedom and Rights, or if it was our chairman calling into Pueblo again the night of the elections telling George Rivera that he ought to prepare a gracious concession speech before the polls even closed…." "I've often said to my colleagues, and I'll say it first here publicly. As much as we fought John Morse and Angela Giron, the DNC, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and OFA, I have to say I actually fought my own Republican Party more, and I'm so sad and disgusted that I actually have to say that. But it's the truth." [BigMedia emphasis.]

Partial transcript of comments by Jennifer Kerns and KLZ host Ken Clark on KLZ's Grassroots Radio Colorado, Friday, Sept. 20:

Jennifer Kerns: This is actually my first time publicly peaking out about this, in regards to the [Republican] Party. But the fact that Ken is taking his vacation time to call in about this. One person inspires another. Ken is exactly right. We just came off a very historic recall. Both of those recalls were driven by the grassroots and people who had never been involved in politics. And I have to say this. This is my first time speaking out as the spokesperson for the recalls, and I'm doing it right here first on Grassroots Radio to say that the Party blocked us every step of the way, whether it was phone calls into Pueblo from Ryan Call to suggest that they shut down those recalls, and they not aid and assist the guys from Pueblo Freedom and Rights, or if it was our chairman calling into Pueblo again the night of the elections telling George Rivera that he ought to prepare a gracious concession speech before the polls even closed…. I encourage everyone who's listening to get involved or else there will be no Party…. I've often said to my colleagues, and I'll say it first here publicly. As much as we fought John Morse and Angela Giron, the DNC, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and OFA, I have to say I actually fought my own Republican Party more, and I'm so sad and disgusted that I actually have to say that. But it's the truth. We have to stay involved in the fight. And, again, it's the Party that has to make peace with us…. They need us more than we need them, and we just proved it in two different races. Ken Clark: We are all Andrew Breitbart. And we understand one thing that I don't think the Republican Party understands at all: We are at war. And we will not back down. We understand what's at stake in the United States of America. We understand what's at stake in Colorado…. Republicans are supposed to stand for something. When I was a kid, they did. It was called the Reagan revolution. And Ronald Reagan was able to articulate his principles in such a manner that the entire country wanted to follow him. And follow him they did…. As a Republican, I stand for principles. What the Hell do you stand for? I really want to know. Do you stand for the Party itself? Is it the Party that you're trying to protect. Is it your own power that you're trying protect? Or is it principle? Is it fighting for the very life of this country? Because that is what is at stake, ladies and gentlemen, that is what is at stake.

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Colorado GOP: It’s Time To Party Like It’s 2009

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has a great post up this morning, citing a number of political incidents leading him to the conclusion that despite whatever "momentum" and circumstantial advantages they can claim, today's Republicans "are their own worst enemy."

“The party is acting as if the entire world is a GOP primary,” said Mike Murphy, a prominent Republican campaign consultant. “That is a very dangerous way to operate. We have massive image problems with the greater electorate, and the silly antics of the purist wing are making our dire problems even worse.”

Cillizza cites a number of news stories from Tuesday, including the humorous flap over right-wing Sen. Ted Cruz's citizenship, red-on-red attacks on southern GOP U.S. Senators, and the resignation of a GOP county chair in Iowa, saying the party "has declared war on science and common sense." But locals will especially note his fifth and last example:

Weld County (Colorado) got approval on Tuesday to secede from the rest of the state. The move was in reaction to the Democratic-controlled legislature’s action on guns and oil exploration. [Pols emphasis]

Taken one by one, none of the above developments is all that big a deal. Taken together, they illustrate that the Republican party is on the verge of splitting in two. Now, to be clear, that split won’t happen. The two major parties are the two major parties for a reason. Disputes work themselves out. The pendulum swings.

But, for now, Republicans are caught in the midst of an increasingly public battle between establishment and, for lack of a better term, tea party wings that is — more than anything Democrats have done — complicating the GOP’s path back to power in 2016.

It's very difficult to find a Republican in Colorado today who isn't extremely bullish on the party's "resurgence," citing two main storylines: the recall elections underway against two Colorado Senators, and the "movement" among some rural counties in Colorado to secede from the rest of the state. The secession "movement" is mostly the work of obscure county-level politicians exploiting traditional rural resentments, while the recalls underway against two Colorado Senators are taking advantage of a low threshold for reaching the ballot–followed by massive infusions of usual-suspect GOP campaign cash to manufacture legitimacy around an effort now openly in pursuit of what were once ulterior motives.

For the purposes of firing up the conservative base, both of these storylines are great for Republicans. But at least in Colorado, and elsewhere as national observers like Cillizza are better able to see, the longer term consequences of fostering a 2009-imitative "backlash" may greatly outweigh the short-term satisfaction of pointlessly voting to secede from the state, or recalling a couple of circumstantially vulnerable state lawmakers.

The question is, where does this end up? 

Republicans may be able to capitalize opportunistically on recalls where they have a circumstantial advantage, and activate a reliable base of rural conservative supporters, but neither of these developments can change the long-term demographic peril Republicans find themselves in here. Converting every voting-age citizen in Phillips County (population 4,400) into a pitchfork-bearing secessionist won't win them a single race in Jefferson County. Pouring massively disproportionate resources into two (really mostly one) state senate race provides no barometer of general election success even if they prevail. And along the way, the collateral damage of this lurch to the right with moderate voters jeopardizes those same future general election prospects.

Today's story from Cillizza looks at a broader range of events from across the nation, with an eye toward the 2016 presidential race. We think, much like in 2010 when local Republicans tried and failed to catch the midterm "GOP wave," Colorado is seeing the high water mark of the GOP's message campaign very early in the cycle: and depending on the choices Republicans make in the upcoming gubernatorial and Senate primaries, there could be a long way down from their present giddy high.

In 2009, no one could predict that Dan Maes would win the GOP primary. But the seeds were already sown.

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At Least He’s Not Your Party Chair

As Mother Jones reports, the Oregon Republican Party is out of its freakin' mind:

After months of in-fighting, the beleaguered Oregon Republican Party elected a new chairman last weekend. His name is Art Robinson, and he wants to sprinkle radioactive waste from airplanes to build up our resistance to degenerative illnesses. Robinson, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress against progressive Rep. Peter DeFazio in 2010 and 2012, took over after the previous chair resigned in advance of a recall campaign over her alleged financial mismanagement.

Robinson, who has a Ph.D. in chemistry, has marketed himself for the last three decades as an expert on everything from nuclear fallout, to AIDS, to climate science in the pages of a monthly newsletter, Access to Technology, which he published from his compound in the small town of Cave Junction. A quick glance at his writings, which were publicized during his ill-fated challenges to DeFazio, suggest that whatever the failings of the previous party leadership—Democrats now hold all statewide elected offices and control both houses of the state legislature—Robinson brings with him a new set of challenges entirely.

The story goes on to list a number of Robinson's "ideas," including his belief that Climate Change is actually beneficial.

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A Koch to Lead the Colorado Democratic Party?

No, no — not that Koch family. From a press release through the Colorado Democratic Party (full release after the jump):

The Colorado Democratic Party (CDP) officially announces the hiring of Jennifer Koch, a Colorado native and veteran campaigner, to be the next Executive Director of the State Party. Jennifer will replace Alec Garnett, who is running for State Representative in HD 2, currently held by Speaker Mark Ferrandino, who is serving his last term in the legislature.

Maybe Jennifer Koch pronounces her last name like "coach" instead of "coke."

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 1, 2013
Contact:
Rick Palacio, Chair
Colorado Democratic Party
(719) 671-4784

Colorado Democratic Party Hires Western Slope Native as New Executive Director

DENVER, CO – The Colorado Democratic Party (CDP) officially announces the hiring of Jennifer Koch, a Colorado native and veteran campaigner, to be the next Executive Director of the State Party. Jennifer will replace Alec Garnett, who is running for State Representative in HD 2, currently held by Speaker Mark Ferrandino, who is serving his last term in the legislature.

Jennifer grew up in Summit and Routt counties and has campaigned across the country fighting to elect Democrats to office. She was instrumental in the political operation for President Obama’s first campaign as the Northeast Deputy Political Director. From there she served in the Obama Administration as Deputy White House Liaison for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. In addition to being on President Obama’s staff, Jennifer has worked with notable Democrats such as Secretary John Kerry, Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (MI), Governor Jennifer Granholm (MI), Governor Tim Kaine (VA), U.S. Congressman Glenn Nye (VA) and U.S. Congresswoman Betty Sutton (OH). 

“Throughout the country, Jennifer has proven herself to be an invaluable member of every team she’s been a part of. We are thrilled to welcome her back home to Colorado, and excited for her to begin her new role as Executive Director,” said Rick Palacio, Chair of the Colorado Democratic Party.

“It is truly an honor to be selected as the next Executive Director for the Colorado Democratic Party as it is an excellent time to be a Democrat in the Centennial State. With the legalization of civil unions, the passage of renewable energy legislation, and the implementation of a modern elections bill, I could not be more excited to work with the many ac! tivists and party officials across the state and further the success of Colorado’s Democrats,” Jennifer said.

Jennifer resides in Littleton and received her Bachelor’s Degree in Communication with a specialization in Public Relations and Political Philosophy. Further, she holds a Masters Degree in International Relations.

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Pew Report: Tea Party Still Controls Republican Primaries

A new poll from Pew Research is bad (BAD) news for Republicans in Colorado and around the country:

Move in a more conservative or moderate direction on policy? By 54% to 40%, Republican and Republican-leaning voters want the party’s leaders to move further to the right. Not surprisingly, conservatives and those who agree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly favor moving in a more conservative direction, while moderates and liberals would like to see the party take more centrist positions. Yet the more moderate wing of the party is a minority generally, and makes up an even smaller share of the likely primary electorate. [Pols emphasis]

Everybody in the crazy pool!

That's not good — not if you are a rational Republican, anyway. As we've written time and again in this space, the greatest threat facing the Republican Party continues to be the outsized influence of the Tea Party. When only the most right-wing candidate can win a Primary, the Republican moving on to a General Election is essentially fighting with one hand tied behind his or her back.

Republican Party officials are well aware of this problem, but there's not a whole hell of a lot they can do about it — particularly when the Tea Party is a collection of a bunch of different groups.

Both local and national Republican Party officials recognize the need to moderate their policy positions and try to appeal to voters other than, well, old white guys. They are correct in their read of the situation, but they can't do a damn thing about it when the Tea Party wing of the Party refuses to play along.

Check out the sobering statistics from the Pew study in the box at right. The big news, obviously, is that the Tea Party continues to exert the most influence over the Republican Primary process:

Tea Party Republicans have influence in the GOP partly because of their high level of political engagement. Overall, they make up a minority (37%) of all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationally. Yet this group is more likely than other GOP voters to say they always vote in primary elections; as a result they make up about half of the Republican primary electorate (49%).

In Colorado, this could be good news for someone like Sen. Greg Brophy, who wants the GOP nomination to challenge incumbent Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper. Nationally, it means Democrats have a definite advantage in the 2016 race for President as it is likely that the GOP will put forth a right-wing candidate.

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