Coffman vs. Romanoff Rated Among Nation’s Top Three Races

 

Analysis from U.S. News and World Report's Lauren Fox:

The showdown between Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Colo., and former speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff is expected to play out in a demographically evolving district that once leaned Republican when Coffman was first elected in 2008, but because of a new wave of Latino constituents moving to the Denver suburb, is swaying in the Democrats' favor. President Barack Obama swept the district by 5 points in the 2012 election.

The rapid evolution of his district has forced Coffman to reevaluate his positions. The congressman entered the House of Representatives and pushed for legislation to nullify a requirement that polling stations provide ballots in more than just English. This year, however, Coffman stepped out and advocated for an immigration overhaul that would provide some kind of legal status for immigrants who entered the country illegally.

The two candidates have deep pockets with Coffman and Romanoff raising $1.6 million and $1.5 million respectively as of September 2013, and there is plenty of outside help.

With so much at stake, the race is expected to be about national issues with Republicans and Democrats both keeping a pulse on the fight. Already, conservative group Americans for Prosperity targeted the district with an ad thanking Coffman for voting against the Affordable Care Act, which has made headlines after the Obamacare website has been plagued with technical malfunctions.

Although this report does note the changing demographics confronting incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Coffman, for whatever reason the story fails to note the much larger impact on Coffman's district from the redistricting process in 2011. Colorado's CD-6 shifted in redistricting from one of the most solidly red districts in America–the stomping ground of former hard-right Rep. Tom Tancredo–into a truly competitive and diverse battleground. In 2012, Coffman faced an underpowered Democratic challenger, yet still barely managed to win re-election.

More than just demographic evolution, although that certainly matters, it is redistricting that has made Coffman one of the most vulnerable members of Congress going into the 2014 elections. Coffman got elected to Congress in 2008 by an electorate that couldn't be more different than what he faces today. There are lots of external reasons why Coffman is vulnerable, from abortion to the recent shutdown he helped bring about.

Factor in his post-2011 constituency, and Coffman is the political equivalent of a dead man walking.

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Romanoff: $500,000+ For The Second Straight Quarter

You’d be smiling too if you had raised $500,000 in two consecutive quarters.

The Hill's Alexandra Jaffe, in case you hadn't already heard:

Democrat Andrew Romanoff raised more than $500,000 in the second quarter and now has nearly $920,000 cash on hand for his campaign to challenge Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.)

That brings his total raised this year to about $1.02 million, making him one of the strongest fundraisers in the House thus far.

More than 91 percent of the donors came from within the state, and more than 80 percent were donations of $100 or less. Romanoff said previously that he wouldn't take money from PACs or special interest groups to fund his campaign.

As of this writing, Romanoff reports slightly more cash on hand than his Republican opponent–we can think of no better answer he could give to critics, including this blog, of his refusal to accept PAC money. The National Republican Congressional Committee was quick to the defensive, Tweeting out in response that incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman raised some $566,000. But Romanoff's second $500,000+ quarter, and breaking of $1,000,000 raised in total so early in this race, is proof positive that this will be no repeat of Coffman's 2012 survival story: which was, as you know, bare survival, against a weak and underfunded challenger.

This time, it's going to be different.

Full story: Romanoff: 0,000+ For The Second Straight Quarter

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