Poll: Hick Weak, Voters Oppose Recall, Back Background Checks

A new poll from Quinnipiac University of Colorado issues and our gubernatorial race contains new and old lessons:

Colorado voters give Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper a split approval rating and more voters say he does not deserve to be reelected, but he has small leads against possible Republican challengers in an early look at the 2014 governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today. 

Gov. Hickenlooper gets a 48 percent approval rating, while 46 percent disapprove, almost identical to his 48 – 44 percent approval rating in an August 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Voters say 49 – 42 percent today that the governor does not deserve reelection, also little changed from August. 

But Hickenlooper edges four possible GOP challengers:
46 – 41 percent over former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo;
45 – 40 percent over Secretary of State Scott Gessler;
44 – 38 percent over State Sen. Greg Brophy;
44 – 40 percent over former State Senate Minority Leader Mike Kopp.

In other questions, once again voters express overwhelming support for Colorado's new universal background check law for gun purchases. The poll splits support for the new law limiting magazine capacity (49-48%). And again, despite these indicators of support for the legislation actually passed by the Colorado General Assembly, 55% of respondents oppose the amorphous concept of "gun control." As we've said before, this disconnect is evidence of how Democrats lost, at least for the time being, the messaging battle over gun safety legislation. If the public had an accurate understanding of what was passed, they'd be in much better shape politically.

In this statewide poll, 51% of voters support the practice of "fracking" for oil and gas development. They also oppose the pending recall attempt against Sen. Evie Hudak by a 49-38% margin. Both of these questions are less relevant with action on the issues happening at the local level–but certainly message fodder for each.

Gov. John Hickenlooper's polling weakness evidenced by Quinnipiac is offset by the weak field of potential Republican challengers–also a dynamic we've been watching develop over the past few months. That's not the most comfortable position to be in, of course, with a year for impressions to change in either direction. But we do believe that Hickenlooper's advantage over his weak challengers will grow, not shrink, as voters get to know them.

All the details for today's poll here.

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Quinnipiac Polling: Coloradans Oppose Recall Effort

According to poll results just released by Quinnipiac University, Colorado voters oppose the use of recall elections despite opposition to recent gun control measures. From a press release:

By wide margins, Colorado voters oppose efforts to recall two state legislators and say 2-1 that efforts to remove legislators when people don’t agree with their vote should be when they face reelection, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Voters say 54 – 35 percent that State Senate President John Morse should not be removed from office because of his support for stricter gun control, the independent Quinnipiac (KWINuh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Voters also say 52 – 36 percent that State Sen. Angela Giron should not be recalled because of her support for stricter gun control.

Colorado voters say 60 – 31 percent that when people don’t agree with a legislator, they should wait for reelection, rather than attempt a recall…

…“With wide partisan and gender divisions, Colorado voters oppose the state’s stricter new gun control laws, but they don’t want to recall State Senate President John Morse or Sen. Angela Giron because they supported these laws,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Philosophically, voters don’t want a recall election every time they disagree with a legislator. They’d rather deal with it every four years.”

It's important to note that these results are from a statewide poll, and don't necessarily indicate opposition for recall efforts in the two specific districts targeted.

The poll results also show that voters say they generally oppose Colorado's new "stricter gun control laws," though from the breakout of opinions on various gun safety measures, voters may not entirely understand them:

Colorado voters support 82 – 16 percent requiring background checks for all gun buyers. Support is strong among all groups.

Voters are divided 49 – 48 percent on a ban on the sale of high-capacity ammunition magazines that hold more than 15 rounds.

The takeaway here is that voters don't like the phrase "stricter gun control laws," but actually seem to support gun safety measures when asked separately.

It is certainly interesting that Colorado voters are so universally opposed to the idea of a recall election — somewhat surprisingly, in fact, given the complexity of the matter. Overall, this reaffirms the belief that the outcome of the Sept. 10 recalls are going to come down to on-the-ground organizing.

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